> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://robindog.gitbook.io/robindog-docs/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://robindog.gitbook.io/robindog-docs/02-why-narrative-prediction-markets.md).

# 02 Why narrative prediction markets

Traditional prediction markets mainly answer one question: Will this happen?

Traders usually care about two more: What happens next if it does? How will the market react?

A company beating earnings expectations does not guarantee that its related asset will rise. The arrival of bad news does not guarantee a decline. Prices reflect facts, expectations, consensus, and whether an outcome has already been priced in.

RobinDog therefore organizes markets into three layers:

## Layer 1 Event prediction

Trade YES or NO to price the probability that an event will occur.

## Layer 2 Story development

Use a Story Tree to connect historical events, live markets, and possible future branches.

## Layer 3 Asset impact

Trade the potential price response of related Stock Tokens or crypto assets after the event.

RobinDog is not designed to predict everything. It focuses on narratives with a credible ability to move prices and capital flows.


---

# Agent Instructions
This documentation is published with GitBook. GitBook is the documentation platform designed so that both humans and AI agents can read, navigate, and reason over technical content effectively. Learn more at gitbook.com.

## Querying This Documentation
If you need additional information that is not directly available in this page, you can query the documentation dynamically by asking a question.

Perform an HTTP GET request on the current page URL with the `ask` query parameter, and the optional `goal` query parameter:

```
GET https://robindog.gitbook.io/robindog-docs/02-why-narrative-prediction-markets.md?ask=<question>&goal=<endgoal>
```

`ask` is the immediate question: it should be specific, self-contained, and written in natural language.
`goal` is optional and describes the broader end goal you are ultimately trying to accomplish on behalf of the user. GitBook uses it to tailor the answer towards what is most useful for that goal.

The response will contain a direct answer to the question and relevant excerpts and sources from the documentation.

Use this mechanism when the answer is not explicitly present in the current page, you need clarification or additional context, or you want to retrieve related documentation sections.