> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://robindog.gitbook.io/robindog-docs/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://robindog.gitbook.io/robindog-docs/05-prediction-markets-that-turn-views-into-prices.md). # 05 Prediction markets that turn views into prices RobinDog converts questions that can be judged clearly and resolved publicly into prediction markets. For example: **Will NVIDIA’s quarterly revenue exceed a predefined target?** Users who believe an event will occur may buy YES outcome shares, while those who believe it will not occur may buy NO. Prices change as information, expectations, and trading activity enter the market. They can be interpreted as market-implied probabilities, but they do not establish the true probability of an event or guarantee its outcome. RobinDog plans to support: * Binary markets. * Multiple-outcome markets. * Price-range markets. * Numeric target markets. * Conditional impact markets. * Head-to-head Battleground markets. At the initial prediction-market launch, USDG is expected to serve as the primary trading, collateral, and settlement asset. #### Outcome Shares and Redemption In a standard binary outcome-share market, each share represents a claim on the designated collateral if its corresponding outcome wins. Following a valid final resolution, one winning share redeems for one unit of the market’s collateral asset, while the losing share redeems for zero. Invalid outcomes follow a separate rule published before trading opens. For example, purchasing 100 YES shares at 0.40 USDG per share costs 40 USDG before fees. If YES wins, those shares redeem for 100 USDG. The difference is 60 USDG before applicable fees. The redemption amount includes the value of the original position and is not the same as net profit. Users may also sell tradable shares before resolution, subject to market availability, liquidity, and execution conditions. Prize pools and other formats use their separately published payout rules. #### Multiple Outcomes and Independent Questions A market with mutually exclusive outcomes differs from a collection of independent binary markets. Mutually exclusive outcomes form a defined set governed by a common resolution rule. Independent binary markets may have multiple YES outcomes and may resolve at different times. RobinDog will identify each market’s structure before participation, including whether its outcomes are mutually exclusive, whether they cover all possible results, and whether related questions settle independently. #### Market Lifecycle **Market proposal → Rules review → Trading opens → New positions close → Outcome obtained → Preliminary resolution → Challenge period → Final resolution or refund** Before trading opens, every market must publish: * A clear, unambiguous market question. * Opening, closing, and resolution times. * The primary data source. * A fallback data source. * Challenge and review procedures. * Conditions for delay, cancellation, and refunds. A market that cannot answer these questions clearly should not enter live trading. --- # Agent Instructions This documentation is published with GitBook. GitBook is the documentation platform designed so that both humans and AI agents can read, navigate, and reason over technical content effectively. Learn more at gitbook.com. ## Querying This Documentation If you need additional information that is not directly available in this page, you can query the documentation dynamically by asking a question. Perform an HTTP GET request on the current page URL with the `ask` query parameter, and the optional `goal` query parameter: ``` GET https://robindog.gitbook.io/robindog-docs/05-prediction-markets-that-turn-views-into-prices.md?ask=&goal= ``` `ask` is the immediate question: it should be specific, self-contained, and written in natural language. `goal` is optional and describes the broader end goal you are ultimately trying to accomplish on behalf of the user. GitBook uses it to tailor the answer towards what is most useful for that goal. The response will contain a direct answer to the question and relevant excerpts and sources from the documentation. Use this mechanism when the answer is not explicitly present in the current page, you need clarification or additional context, or you want to retrieve related documentation sections.