> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://robindog.gitbook.io/robindog-docs/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://robindog.gitbook.io/robindog-docs/09-conditional-impact-markets.md).

# 09 Conditional impact markets

Conditional Impact Markets answer a further question: If an event does or does not occur, how will the related asset perform?

RobinDog can begin with a straightforward linked-market structure rather than a complex joint-probability model.

## Example structure

Market A - Event market: Will NVIDIA's quarterly revenue exceed the target?

Market B - Impact if the event occurs: If revenue exceeds the target, will the related asset rise by more than 5% within the specified window?

Market C - Impact if the event does not occur: If revenue misses the target, will the related asset fall by more than 5% within the specified window?

If the condition for Market B or Market C does not occur, the relevant conditional market is cancelled and refunded under rules published in advance.

This structure lets users trade separately on the probability of the event, the market reaction if it occurs, and the market reaction if it does not occur.

The market prices not only how likely an event is, but also how much that event matters.


---

# Agent Instructions
This documentation is published with GitBook. GitBook is the documentation platform designed so that both humans and AI agents can read, navigate, and reason over technical content effectively. Learn more at gitbook.com.

## Querying This Documentation
If you need additional information that is not directly available in this page, you can query the documentation dynamically by asking a question.

Perform an HTTP GET request on the current page URL with the `ask` query parameter, and the optional `goal` query parameter:

```
GET https://robindog.gitbook.io/robindog-docs/09-conditional-impact-markets.md?ask=<question>&goal=<endgoal>
```

`ask` is the immediate question: it should be specific, self-contained, and written in natural language.
`goal` is optional and describes the broader end goal you are ultimately trying to accomplish on behalf of the user. GitBook uses it to tailor the answer towards what is most useful for that goal.

The response will contain a direct answer to the question and relevant excerpts and sources from the documentation.

Use this mechanism when the answer is not explicitly present in the current page, you need clarification or additional context, or you want to retrieve related documentation sections.